The Estonian Institute of Economic Research (Eesti Konjunktuuriinstituut) has revised its forecast on 2020’s economic decline upwards to a 5 percent fall. In summer the institute had predicted an 8 percent decline.
The institute says that the ongoing effects of the coronavirus crisis, low demand and a shortage of third-country labor are factors, topped off with an unemployment rate forecast at 7.5 percent for 2020.
The institute says it also expects a 6 percent decline in industrial production this year, though one sector seeing small levels of growth is real wages, which it expects to rise by 0.8 percent.
The institute says that the economic situation has improved since June in some areas, particularly in private consumption.
Institute: Recovery due in March
The institute says that it expects some improvement by or in March 2021, with improvements in foreign trade and price rises contributing to the peak of the crisis being passed between now and year-end.
Read more: ERR.EE